UKIP’s surge has swamped parties like National Health Action. 14 mths ago Ashcroft polling had them at 18% to this twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2013

Above is from some polling carried out for Michael Ashcroft in March 2012 on the possible impact that a NHS party could have on the next election.

As can be seen the party chalked up 18% in the poll taking votes from LAB and the LDs and leaving the blues ahead. Those figures were quite remarkable and suggested that there was an appetite for a non-mainstream party to emerge. There was but not NHA.

The party ran a reasonably high-profile campaign in Eastleigh and were the odds-on favourite to come top of the “others”. They got a fair bit of coverage – yet on polling day could only chalk up 0.9% of the vote.

Their challenge is that in fiercely fought elections like Eastleigh NHA gets totally swamped. The non-mainstream alternative is now Ukip.

Mike Smithson

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So why the huge difference?

The first YouGov poll to be carried out after the “loongate” story blew up has a dramatically different picture than Survation last night.

UKIP remains on the 14% share recorded in the Sunday Times poll while the Tories edge up 2% to 31% with LAB falling back a point.

The main differences between Survation and YouGov are that the former takes likelihood to vote into account and prompts for Ukip in its main voting question.

YouGov does not ask about voting certainty – an element that has really boosted UKIP in some polls that do. For a large part of Farage’s party’s support comes from the older age groups who are far more likely to turn out at elections.

The prompt issue is one that is a matter of some debate and we know that YouGov has been testing an approach that is similar to Survation.

Currently those sampled by YouGov do not see UKIP listed on the main voting page. To select them they have to tick “some other party” which brings up another page.

It is argued that the absence of prompting depresses the UKIP share and helps boost the Tories.

Another factor that depresses YouGov UKIP shares is the firm’s party ID weightings which reduce, in this latest poll, the “value” of those who identify themselves as Ukip voted Ukip at #GE2010 by more than 75%.

How voters for “others” get their views cut back by YouGov party ID weightings.In latest poll 92 became 23. See.. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2013

Mike Smithson

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The changes shown are from Survation’s poll just before the May 2 local elections.

Interestingly most of the change appears to have been direct CON>UKIP switch.

Survation came under some strong criticism last year for prompting for Ukip in the same way that they prompt for the other main parties. The way things have developed since then suggests that they were right.

Labour and the Lib Dems will be relatively comfortable with these numbers because the blue team is taking the biggest hit.

Mike Smithson

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What does this say about Dave’s current position

Full details of the “Will Cameron face aleadership challenge?” betting from PaddyPower. bit.ly/I8PkIO See. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2013

There’s definitely “something in the air” about the Conservatives at the moment and I’m one of many, I guess, who’ve had a punt on him facing a leadership challenge before GE2015.

My sense is that if it did get to this stage then he’d lose – but I’ve covered this eventiality with a smaller bet at the 5/1 that he’ll face a challenge and survive.

We are now just over 23 months from the GE2015 and, no doubt, many of those Tories who won seats in 2010 are starting to get a bit anxious, especially when they work out the implication in their individual seats of the growing Ukip shares.

If we look at the form book the Tories do bring down leaders they fear will be an electoral liability.

Mike Smithson

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Great value bet at Stan James. Cameron 10/1 to be first leader to leave pre-general election. Dave’s most at risk. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2013

Alas good prices don’t last long. Since I got on yesterday the odds on this bet have now tightened to 6/1. Last October I placed a 7/1 bet with William Hill that Cameron would be the first of the three leaders to go. That, unlike the Stan James bet, is not restricted to it happening pre-general election.

The front page of tomorrow’s Daily Telegraph will add to the pressure on the CON leadership. See.. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2013

To add to the febrile political atmosphere we now have this back at Westminster. goo.gl/09A0M twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2013

Mike Smithson

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The issues voters told YouGov would impact on their vote.How do Tories appeal to both 2010 LDs &Ukip supporters? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2013

Above is a fascinating chart showing the issues that those sampled by YouGov said would influence their vote at the next general election.

There are two columns, I would suggest, you should focus on: the views of Ukip supporters and those of 2010 LDs. These, of course, are where most the allegiance shifting has been taking place and the level of what these electors do will more than anything determine the outcome.

The question for the Tories is how on earth do you appeal to both without alienating the other?

As can be seen UKIP supporters are much more likely to be concerned about immigration and Europe as those who voted for Nick Clegg’s party 3 years ago.

Backers of Farage are much less interested in education which, with all the Gove initiatives, is a serious concern for many 2010 LDs.

Going heavy in one direction, say Ukip voters, is going to alienate 2010 LDs who you hope, at least, would stick with the yellows in the key CON-LAB battlegrounds.

Mike Smithson

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@msmithsonpb getting some interesting spreads in polling now

— Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) May 19, 2013

The Tories are seen as being much more divided than LAB

73% tell the latest YouGov survey that the Tories are divided with just 10% saying united. 29% said LAB united to 36% saying divided

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2013

In the Sunday Telelgraph/ICM Wisdom Index those polled are asked to predict the percentages for the four main parties. Note that in this survey for the first time Ukip has been included.