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After a day dominated by two big polls IndyRef NO is the biggest betting loser

September 2nd, 2014

Inevitably with only 15 days left to go before Scotland decides on partition there’s been a lot of betting activity on the referendum outcome with the money going on YES. YouGov’s 6% NO lead, down from 18% in July, has given partition campaigners real hope that what they’ve been campaigning for decades might just conceivably happen.

This poll, and the way it has been highlighted by the media, has all the making of a narrative changer even though all it does is bring YouGov into line with Survation.

My reading is that the oldies will save it for NO for they don’t seem to have been affected by the YES surge. YouGov had them splitting 2 to 1 to rejection and these are people who are much more likely to vote.

Even so I’ve switched my betting round onto YES because I’m hoping for more movement that way on Betfair in the next few days.

For the Clacton by-election we now have a date – October 9th, Dave’s 48th birthday. The big development there has been the Ashcroft Clacton poll which has UKIP ahead by 36% before don’t knows are reallocated and 32% when they are. This is in the same territory as Survation with the main differences being down to methodology.

Whatever it is very hard to see how UKIP can be beaten with such massive poll leads. If you want to tie up a lot of money for five weeks than you should get a reasonable return.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble





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Lord Ashcroft’s Clacton poll shows UKIP 32% ahead

September 2nd, 2014

Lord Ashcroft has published his poll on the Clacton by-election, which is to be held on the 9th of October, which is David Cameron’s birthday, like the survation poll, it shows Douglas Carswell comfortably winning for UKIP, the polling on him personally shows why he is course to become UKIP’s first elected MP and hold the seat at the General Election.

 

Mike mentioned earlier

Ashcroft follows ICM in reallocating DKs in accordance with 2010 vote. Only problem with Clacton is that UKIP deliberately didn’t stand against Carswell because it broadly approved of him. So part of his vote in 2010 can be said not to be CON but UKIP.

The figures to be looking out for are the pre-allocated ones.

Lord Ashcroft notes

In the Clacton poll, since it is not possible to guess what those who claimed to have voted UKIP in 2010 really did – whether they voted at all, and if so for which party – there were two options for dealing with them. One was to assume they did not vote at all, which seems a sweeping response and unlikely to be true. The other – which is what we have done – is to treat them as though they did vote, but for a party other than the Conservatives, Labour or the Liberal Democrats. As such, they appear in the tables in the Others column under ‘2010 Vote’.

As it happens, treating them the other way would have made only a marginal difference to the overall result – which is, with more than five weeks until polling day, a snapshot not a forecast.

UPDATE


The best odds on UKIP winning Clacton is 1/8.

TSE



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August’s Politicalbetting polling average: LAB recovery continues

September 2nd, 2014

Ed-with-No-10-collage (1)

CON and UKIP edge up too; Others and LDs take a knock

The one-time received wisdom that August polls should be ignored because summer sun and silly season made sampling and support unstable took a good hit last month when Mike noted the accuracy of ICM’s August polls in the run-up to three of the last four elections.  Of course, polls are snapshots not predictions and are bound by a political equivalent of Newton’s First Law: polling taken outside periods of turbulence will remain steady unless subjected to events, dear boy.

Put another way, in the absence of significant shocks to the system, the movement in polling over a month is more likely than not to give a good indication of how underlying opinion is moving.  On that level, Ed Miliband will be a happy man.  The Politicalbetting poll average figures for August were:

LAB 35.4+0.6
CON 32.1 +0.3
UKIP 14.0 +0.8
LD 8.5 -0.4
OTH 10.0 -1.2

Those are not particularly big movements of themselves but what may be more significant is that it’s the third consecutive month that Labour has put on around half a point, which adds up to a mini-trend, bouncing back from their slump in support in May (which it has to be said was a singularly poor time to have such a drop and the implications of that coincidence of timing and movement can’t be wholly ignored for 2015).  It was also the third month in a row that the Lab-Con gap has grown, edging out from 2.2% to 3.3% over the period.

Elsewhere, UKIP recovered a little from their own slump last month while the Tories also nudged upwards slightly, though I wouldn’t read too much into either movement: UKIP’s figures have been quite erratic over the summer, if in a solidly good range, while the Conservatives’ movement is small and remains in a band centred on 31.5%, as it has for over a year now.  By contrast, the Lib Dems went backwards, falling to their second-lowest monthly score in the series.  The minor parties too dropped back, though in their case it was from their highest point in the parliament.

Given that we know that there are two big political events coming up, one of which (Clacton) could be quite significant historically, the other of which could be overwhelmingly so, do the polls taken during a quieter time before then matter?  That depends on both the outcome of those votes and on the various parties’ reactions to them.  If nothing else, it gives an idea of where the underlying momentum is and if the two votes do turn out to be damp squibs in the medium term, that’s not inconsequential.

David Herdson



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If the latest YouGov IndyRef poll is right then the outcome could be very close indeed

September 1st, 2014

The above Tweets are all I’ve got at the moment. No doubt the numbers will be fleshed out in the next few hours.

What’s striking is that YouGov has been one of the pollsters which over the months has shown YES in one of the worst positions. This poll suggests that there’s been a marked turnaround.

Two GE2015 polls showing different pictures

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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On the betting market IndyRef NO and UKIP in Clacton drop: EdM as next PM and LAB most seats rise

September 1st, 2014

Populus online reverts to “Good for LAB on Mondays, Bad on Fridays”



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Tory hopes of benefitting from a first time incumbency bonus depend on first time incumbents standing again

September 1st, 2014

The more that follow Kelly route the bigger the task at GE2015

Dudley South was won by the Tories at GE2010 with a majority of 10.1% and is LAB target number 75. On current national polling it is one of a critical batch of seats that Labour needs to gain in order to secure a working majority. Currently Ladbrokes make the Tories 4/5 favourite to retain it.

It was won by the Tories in 2010 by Chris Kelly who announced last night that he will not be standing again at GE2015 making him the eighth from the CON 2010 intake to announce such a move.

The chances are that his decision will impede the Tory effort to retain it. For one of the electoral dynamics that we have seen is that first time incumbents do better than the national average for their parties when they seek to retain their seats for the first time. See my post from last year.

Labour has been seeking to undermine this factor by in quite a number of cases re-selecting former MPs to fight the LAB-CON marginals that were lost in 2010. My own seat of Bedford and Nick Palmer in Broxtowe are good examples. It will be interesting to see if this strategy has an impact.

    The Tories have been investing a lot of hope in the first time incumbency dynamic and they are probably right to expect a 1-2% boost. But this requires the MP who won for the first time in 2010 to stand again.

The more that first term Tory MPs follow the Kelly route the bigger the challenge for their party in hanging on to power.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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UKIP Clacton price the big mover in today’s political betting market report

August 31st, 2014

LAB most seats/EdM next PM/ IndyRef NO all up as well

Inevitably given the Survation Clacton poll the big mover has been the UKIP by-election price – now rated as an 88% chance.

It is hard to see what could happen to change this and as we get closer the the date you would expect this to get tighter.

EdM for next PM and LAB most seas all up a bit and there’s been a small up-tick for an IndyRef NO.

Given the current political environment I’m planning to feature this as often as there are significant movements.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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The devastating detail from the Survation Clacton by-election poll

August 31st, 2014

The constituency, though, is a one-off

In all the time I have been following and analysing polls there has never been anything as sensational as the Survation Clacton poll for the Mail on Sunday published overnight. The figures are extraordinary and point to an overwhelming victory for Douglas Carswell in his new colours.

The thing we must remember is – as Rob Ford and Matt Goodwin the leading academics who have studied the UKIP surge, will tell you – that the demographics of Clacton make it in theory at least the best of all of the 650 commons seats, for Farage’s party.

In the May 22nd Euro election the Tendring Council area saw a vote split of UKIP 48%: CON 25: LAB 13: LD 2: OTH 12. The Clacton seat covers 21 of the 35 wards in the council area.

Clearly there’s speculation over where this could happen next. The main consolation for the Tories is that in any other seat conditions would not be as favourable though that doesn’t meant it won’t happen.

The dramatic UKIP victory that Survation is pointing to will make waves throughout UK politics and other CON MPs, surely, will be considering their positions. I reckon that Kettering MP, Mr Philip Hollobone, might be a possible and I’ve had a small bet at 12/1 that the seat will go UKIP next May.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble